Why Hagel Will Run as an Independent -- and Win

Many pundits are expecting Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel to announce his intention to run for the 2oo8 Republican presidential nomination later this year. However, don't expect that to occur any time soon -- don't expect it to happen at all. Ultimately, Hagel will decide not to seek the 2008 GOP presidential nod. Although he is as conservative as they come on social issues like abortion, he has alienated many within the Republican Party with his opposition to President Bush on the war in Iraq. In addition, he has even gone as far as saying that the possibility of impeaching the President is "on the table."

Hagel knows that, should he seek the Republican presidential nomination, he would likely find little sentiment for his candidacy within the party. However, if and when he did begin to show any strength in the polls, it would almost certainly inspire the mounting of a strong "anyone-but-Hagel" campaign, organized by Republican insiders, influential neocons, and Bush administration loyalists. Many of these people are already calling for him to be drummed out of the party and are referring to him as a RINO (Republican in Name Only).

But all of this doesn't mean he won't make a run for the White House in 2008. I think he will still run -- only as an independent candidate. If he does make an independent run, he will have the best chance to win of any independent candidate in recent history. And this includes Ross Perot in 1992, when he declared his candidacy, surged to the top of the polls, abruptly withdrew, and then re-entered the race a few months later, unable to re-capture his original poll standing and ultimately finishing a distant third.

Hagel will likely have two major advantages if he runs as an independent. First, the Republicans are likely to nominate someone who is viewed as not being as conservative as he on the social issues. Look at their top three candidates as it stands now. Rudy Giuliani is certainly no social conservative, by any stretch of the imagination. John McCain is not trusted by many evangelicals and members of the Religious Right, even though he has recently tried to make up with them. Many have not forgotten his past clashes with them over key issues. Mitt Romney, who now claims to be a social conservative, is still having to explain his recent conversion and why he previously supported abortion rights and gay marriage. A great number of social conservatives view him as nothing more than an opportunistic flip-flopper. Hagel could benefit from socially conservative voters, who normally vote Republican for president, not being satisfied with the social conservative credentials of the GOP nominee.

Second, Hillary Clinton is still the odds-on favorite to capture the Democratic presidential nomination. There are many solid liberals and regular Democratic voters who, though they may have loved her husband's presidency, consider her to be just too polarizing and/or power-hungry and will therefore not vote for her under any circumstances. Others just don't like the Clintons in general. Most of these liberal Democrats are strongly opposed to the war and Iraq and are looking for a candidate who will bring it to an end as soon as possible. These voters, although they obviously do not agree with Chuck Hagel on the social issues, might turn to him anyway. In addition, independent voters who oppose the war in Iraq and would never vote for Hillary Clinton would likely support Hagel's candidacy as well.

Chuck Hagel could very well turn out to be America's compromise candidate in 2008. For this reason, I think he will decide to run for president in 2008 as an independent and will ultimately be elected. 

Comments

[California Yankee]

At the RealClearPolitics Blog, Tom Bevan posts this quote from Senator Hagel:

"Q: Would you give any consideration to running as an Independent?
HAGEL: Well, if I seek the Presidency, I would seek it as a Republican. Where all this is going to go and how it ends up next year, whether that's possible for an Independent to be elected President, maybe. Maybe it would be. But, right now, I'd be focused on seeking the Republican nomination."

[Charlie]

You present a very interesting argument. He could pick up the conservatives on the right and the anti-war votes from across the spectrum.