The first quarter of 2007 is nearly over, and that means we'll soon be seeing the reports of each candidate's money raising prowess for the period of January to March. I have some predictions about how these first quarter results will turn out for candidates in both parties, although I will not attempt to guess specific amounts of money.
To no one's surprise, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani will lead the way for their respective parties. However, among the Democrats, I predict that Barack Obama's totals will be much closer to Hillary's numbers than most pundits suspect at this point. John Edwards will fall in behind him, but at a distant third. In the Republican field, John McCain and Mitt Romney will wind up in a virtual tie for second, but neither will be anywhere near Giuliani's totals.
The interesting numbers to watch will be fund raising totals of the second and third tier candidates in both parties. I believe Sam Brownback will be the winner among the GOP's second tier candidates. Not very far behind will be Mike Huckabee, who is and will be battling Brownback for the same contributors. Duncan Hunter, who will have a better-than-expected quarter, will be next. He will be followed by Tommy Thompson and then Jim Gilmore, who will have a disappointing quarter and might decide not to run. Bringing up the rear will be Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul.
Bill Richardson will be shown to have raised, by far, the most money among the Democrats' second tier candidates. This could give him some impetus to compete with Edwards for funds in the second quarter. Chris Dodd will be next, but will be followed close behind by Joe Biden. I do not believe that Dodd and Biden will be able to survive the entire year. Therefore, Dodd's early lead over Biden, although small, could be critical and would likely create a sense of urgency for Biden, heading into the second quarter. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel will finish a great distance behind.
way off
Posted by: | April 02, 2007 at 08:10 PM