Mitt Romney wins as expected, but falls slightly short of the 51% he got in Nevada in 2008. He had been spending time there ever since, and he had the added advantage of his fellow Mormons comprising 25% of the caucus-goers. Nevada was indeed friendly territory, and he benefited from it. Although he’s probably favored in Colorado and Minnesota on Tuesday, he might not find the going quite as easy in those states. Perhaps that was why he played his Nevada win for all it was worth, and then some.
Newt Gingrich finished second, despite having not spent any money on TV ads there. It was a respectable finish, considering the circumstances. With the general consensus being that Romney was going to win Nevada going away, the real battle there was for second place, and Gingrich won it. However, he’ll need to perform better in Minnesota and/or Colorado on Tuesday to stop his slide in momentum that began several days before the Florida primary.
Ron Paul came in third behind Gingrich, even though he spent around $350,000 on ads in the state. He had also campaigned there previously in 2008 and had spent a lot more time there than did Gingrich. His organization was also supposed to help him edge past Gingrich, but it turned out to be overrated. But he will be satisfied to continue accumulating delegates as he did in Nevada.
Rick Santorum finished in last place, making Nevada the fourth consecutive state in which he has not finished in the top two. He will need to turn things around on Tuesday. His best chance is in Missouri’s non-binding primary in which Gingrich is not on the ballot. But if Romney beats him there, and he lets Gingrich finish ahead of him in both Colorado and Minnesota, stick a fork in him – he’s done.
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