There is talk of a possible brokered convention in almost every presidential election cycle. However, this year there has been a little more of it than usual, in regard to the race for the GOP presidential nomination. That’s because the frontrunner keeps changing back and forth between Mitt Romney and one of the other candidates, such as Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and now Rick Santorum.
In most presidential election cycles, one candidate, such as John McCain for the GOP in 2008, grabs an early headwind and coasts to the nomination, or the race narrows down early to two people, such as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats in 2008, who battle it out to the end. Neither of these scenarios has come to pass yet in 2012. However, don’t count on seeing a brokered convention, which hasn’t happened in either party since 1940’s.
More than likely, someone will emerge after Super Tuesday or shortly thereafter, with a large enough lead in the delegate count to begin closing in on the 1144 needed for nomination. Political parties love clarity and hate uncertainty when it comes to their presidential nominee, and they will act accordingly. In politics, there is natural bias in favor of the boring and against the exciting. Besides, like the prospect of a major league sports franchise ever coming to Virginia, a brokered convention would be too good to be true.
The premature talk about brokered convention seems to come from the establishment (which seems to prefer a certain candidate).
PS: I am not thrilled with any of the candidates. I am least thrilled with the establishment candidate.
Posted by: Kevin Delaney | February 25, 2012 at 07:12 PM