Here are the official results of the 2011 GOP Presidential Straw Poll:
1. Michele Bachmann 4823
2. Ron Paul 4671
3. Tim Pawlenty 2293
4. Rick Santorum 1657
5. Herman Cain 1456
6. Rick Perry 718
7. Mitt Romney 567
8. Newt Gingrich 385
9. Jon Huntsman 69
10. Thaddeus McCotter 35
Analysis:
Michele Bachmann’s win solidifies her position as the frontrunner for the Iowa Caucuses in February. Although her win was somewhat expected, she has not been in this race nearly as long as the second, third, fourth, and fifth-place finishers. This win should also boost her ability to raise money for the remainder of the year. However, her major challenges to expand her base beyond the Tea Party and outside the upper Midwest remain intact.
Ron Paul’s strong second place finish demonstrates the fact that he will be a much bigger player in the Iowa Caucuses and the nominating process in general this time around. Four years ago, he finished way down in the pack both in the straw poll and caucuses, and subsequently was never able to get beyond 10% in any primary or caucus. What’s different this time is that his fiscal conservative message is resonating more because of the economic situation the country is in. Still, he has little chance to be nominated.
Although he finished in the top three as he stated that he had to, Tim Pawlenty has to be disappointed with the outcome. He has spent more time and money in Iowa than any other candidate except perhaps Rick Santorum, only to finish a distant third, with less than half of the second place finisher’s total. Actually, his vote total placed him closer to sixth place than second place. Pawlenty has staked so much on Iowa that he has to finish in the top three in the caucuses in February. To accomplish that, he will need to recalibrate his campaign. Third place will be much tougher then, with major candidates like Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who skipped the straw poll, competing heavily.
Rick Santorum, who has been at the back of the pack in most national polls of GOP presidential contenders, had to heartened by his fourth place finish ahead of Herman Cain. Santorum has spent lots of time in Iowa and he is hoping his showing will finally begin to get him some attention in the national media. He will need a top three finish in the February caucuses for his campaign to remain viable into March.
Herman Cain had hoped to finish in the top four, but will put a positive spin on his disappointing fifth-place finish. Cain must perform much better in February, as Iowa is a state where he has invested a lot of time and one that is tailor-made for his kind of candidacy. If he can’t perform well there, it’s hard to imagine where he could perform well. He is a great speaker who knows how to get applause lines, but he soon needs to figure out how to parlay that into votes.
Rick Perry, who declared his candidacy in South Carolina the day of the straw poll, managed to finish a surprising sixth, ahead of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, on the strength of write-in ballots. This is just another indicator of the fact Perry is going to be a formidable candidate and almost instantly share the frontrunner status with Romney and Bachmann.
Although Romney, Gingrich, and Jon Huntsman were on the ballot, they skipped the event and never really expected to do well. Thaddeus McCotter did not skip it and still managed only 35 votes. He obviously needs to concentrate his energies on running for re-election to Congress and postpone a presidential run until he’s a little more well-known nationally.
UPDATE: Shortly after I originally posted this, Tim Pawlenty withdrew from the GOP presidential race. More about that in upcoming post.
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