Don't It Make My Red States Blue

There are at least two indicators that the Democratic nominee will win the presidency this fall. The first is the fact many more people have participated in the Democratic primaries and caucuses than in the corresponding nominating contests conducted by the Republicans. There just seems to be more enthusiasm for the Democrats this time. The second is the poll released last week in which Americans indicated that they are worse off now than they were eight years ago. That kind of sentiment is almost always an omen of a change of parties at the White House.

Of course, this will mean that several previously red states will turn blue this fall. Florida and Ohio, both of which voted Republican in the last two presidential elections, will likely go for the Democratic nominee this time around. If just one of them switches, the Democrats would win the White House, assuming all the other states vote as they did four years ago. Also, consistent GOP-voting states like Virginia and North Carolina might fall to the Democrats in November.