The Impact of Obama's Big Win in South Carolina

Barrack Obama got a much needed, although expected, win in South Carolina yesterday. However, no one expected it to be the landslide that it was. The polls (you gotta love 'em) just can't seem to get the Democratic primaries right. They all had Obama winning in New Hampshire -- he lost. They had Obama winning by anywhere from eight to 16 percent in South Carolina -- he won in a blowout by 28 percent, more than doubling Hillary Clinton's total. As was the case in Nevada last week, he dominated the African-American vote, getting over 80% of it. But he also managed to attract nearly a quarter of the white vote.

Obama's win in South Carolina pulls him even with Clinton in wins at two apiece and sets him up to be very competitive on Super Tuesday. Although Clinton currently leads in the polls of most of the Super Tuesday states, expect to see them begin to narrow over the next several days, as a result of the bounce in momentum Obama will surely get. Obama will almost certainly win Illinois, his home state, and Georgia, a state where African-Americans make up an even larger portion of the Democratic electorate than they do in South Carolina.

He will also have a shot at winning Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri, which also have large black populations. Massachusetts is also looking good for him now, with tomorrow's expected endorsement by Ted Kennedy. That will give Obama the endorsements of the state's governor and both senators. An addition, although he will probably not win New York or New Jersey, he will be able to target pockets in both of those states where large numbers of African-Americans reside. After all is said and done on Super Tuesday, he could conceivably pick up nearly as many delegates that day as Clinton. Therefore, the race for the Democratic nomination could potentially go on well past Super Tuesday and into early spring. 

The size of her loss in South Carolina has to be a major setback for Clinton. It may have occurred as a result of a backlash from South Carolina voters, both black and white, who were offended by Hillary and Bill Clinton's criticism of Obama. Hillary will now need to regroup and attempt to divert the voting public's attention away from her embarrassing loss. However, she is still the frontrunner for now and will be until such time as Obama overtakes her in the national polls and/or moves ahead of her in total delegates.

Comments

[kid5rivers]

I’m from Trinidad and Tobago. (http://www.kid5rivers.com)
We, here, are keenly following this 2008 campaign.
Were Barack Obama a white man, he’d have been the only candidate in the entire Presidential race! What a pity if, in this day and age, Americans would reject him because of his colour.