CommenTerry

Random Rants and Raves #124

Whenever you hear that you're going to get six feet of snow where you live, someone else in the same place is guaranteed to hear that it's going to be a foot.          

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I once knew a guy who had the best health insurance money could buy -- but he got sick and died anyway. 

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Anticipation is a waste of time. Any date in the future, no matter how far off, always eventually gets here -- without our help.

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Just when you thought cable TV couldn't get any worse, we are being informed that Oprah is getting her own cable channel.

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The trouble with get-rich-quick schemes is that they don't work very quickly -- and they don't make you rich.  

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I can never work up any sympathy for a perpetrator who is killed or injured during a crime. Someone low enough to attempt to kill, hurt, or rob someone else deserves whatever adverse fate awaits him. 

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Maturity -- like anything else that doesn't bring happiness -- is overrated.  

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How quickly something arrives in the mail has an inverse correlation with how badly one needs it. 

An Analysis of the January 19th Contests

The results of yesterday's contests in Nevada and South Carolina boosted the fortunes of some, set back some, and pretty much finished off some others.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton's win in Nevada breaks the stalemate between herself and Barack Obama and gives her a two-to-one edge over him in wins. It also solidifies her position as the national frontrunner for the Democrats and creates a virtual must-win situation for Obama in South Carolina next week.

Her strength with Latino voters, along with her superior organization, clearly overcame whatever advantage Obama gained by getting the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union. Many Hispanic members of that union ignored its recommendation and supported Clinton anyway. In Democratic caucuses and primaries, Hispanics have historically supported the establishment candidate and Clinton reaped the benefits. The Clintons will now fight hard in South Carolina over the upcoming week to win there and try to wrap up the nomination early.

The one bright spot for Barack Obama in Nevada was his dominance with African-American voters. If he can repeat this feat in South Carolina next week, he will almost certainly win, as they make up about half of Democratic primary voters. If Obama can win South Carolina, he will pull even with Clinton in wins and set himself up to be very competitive on Super Tuesday.

John Edwards had hoped to be competitive in Nevada, so he has to be disappointed with getting just four percent of the vote. However, he'll still move on to his home state of South Carolina, where there is little hope that he can duplicate the win he got four years ago.

For the Republicans, John McCain's big win in South Carolina removes any doubt that he is the GOP's national frontrunner and puts him in the driver's seat for now. He becomes the first Republican during this cycle to win more than one contested primary or caucus. He has to take gratification from the fact that he finally broke through in South Carolina, the state that punctured his nomination dreams eight years ago. The difference this time was that he had the establishment working for him, not against him.

This win should give him a big momentum boost going into the Florida primary and initially solidify his current small lead in the polls there. However, winning Florida will not be an easy task for McCain. He will not have the establishment behind him there, as Jeb Bush's political machine will be working for Mitt Romney. In addition, Rudy Giuliani has been camped out there for several weeks.

In a previous article, I stated that only registered Republicans would be allowed to vote in South Carolina's GOP primary. I stand corrected. Actually, as was the case with New Hampshire and Michigan, it was open to independents as well. Now, beginning with Florida, most of the remaining contests will be open to Republicans only. This could be a big problem for McCain, as he has yet to win among Republicans in any 2008 contest thus far. If McCain can manage to break through and win Florida, he will likely do well in all regions of the country on Super Tuesday and it will be practically impossible for his opponents to stop him from capturing the nomination.

With nearly 60% of South Carolina GOP primary voters identifying themselves as social conservatives and evangelical Christians, Mike Huckabee had hoped to carry the state. However, he just couldn't consolidate enough of them behind his campaign and was unable to expand his appeal beyond this demographic. Therefore, he had to settle for a close second-place finish.

There is one silver lining, though, for Huckabee. It looks as if he was able to knock Fred Thompson out of the race. Thompson's ability to siphon off enough social conservative voters in South Carolina directly led to Huckabee's defeat. However, he will likely not have to worry about Thompson repeating such a scenario in future contests. That will give Huckabee a shot at winning Florida. He will be the only major candidate with specific appeal to evangelical Christian voters and will be competing against three major candidates who do not have such appeal. If they evenly split the non-evangelical vote in Florida, that would leave an opening for Huckabee to sneak in and steal a win. If he can't win, he will need another close second-place finish to stay viable and keep the donations coming in.

The events of the day represented goods news and bad news for Mitt Romney. He enjoyed a big win in Nevada but didn't get the solid third-place showing he had hoped for in South Carolina. He ended up fourth, just behind Thompson. Romney got all 34 delegates in Nevada, where he ran almost unopposed by the other GOP candidates. The fact that he didn't do so well in South Carolina can probably be blamed on the fact that he quit campaigning there -- in favor of fulltime campaigning in Nevada -- three days before the primary. Some South Carolinians who would have voted for him may have switched to McCain. Romney will need to go all out in Florida to stop McCain's momentum and finish no lower than second. The backing of Jeb Bush in the Sunshine State will be a major advantage.

South Carolina was supposed to be the site of Fred Thompson's great stand. However, he failed miserably, finishing a distant third. All week, I kept hearing about the "Fred Thompson surge" in South Carolina, but it never materialized. As a result of his disappointing finish, he will more than likely drop out of the race within the next several days and endorse McCain.

It was another dreadful day at the polls for Rudy Giuliani, but he had another virtual bye. His byes will end nine days from now in Florida, where he will finally have to suit up and play ball. But has he become too rusty in the interim? We shall see.

Ron Paul fans will never forgive me if I fail to mention his second-place finish in Nevada. So I'm mentioning it here, although I wonder about its actual significance vis-a-vis the nomination race.

A Preview of Today's Caucuses and Primary

Tomorrow's big contests will be in New England and Green Bay, but today they will be held in Nevada and South Carolina. Let's take a look at what to expect.

Both the Democrats and Republicans will be holding caucuses in Nevada today. For the Democrats, it will be a much more high-profile event, with all three of the top contenders fighting tooth-and-nail to win there. Hillary Clinton has the backing of party insiders, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's son, Rory, who serves as the state chairman for her campaign. Barack Obama has the endorsement of the large and influential Culinary Workers Union. John Edwards doesn't have either if these advantages, but his campaign themes seem to resonate with the state's union workers, African-Americans, and Hispanics. Clinton appears to be holding a slight lead in the Nevada polls.

A federal judge recently dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Nevada State Education Association to block nine caucuses from being held at Las Vegas casinos, where most of the members of the Culinary Workers Union are employed. While the Clinton campaign claims to have had nothing to do with this suit, the Obama campaign would certainly have cried foul if it had been successful. Charges of disenfranchisement would have started flying, as those culinary workers would have found it more difficult, if not impossible, to participate in the caucuses if they had to leave the casinos where they work and go home to their communities of residence to cast their votes. The judge's decision was obviously a big boost for Obama.

Obama needs to win both in Nevada today and in South Carolina next week to regain the momentum he lost to Clinton in New Hampshire and gain a leg up on her, going into Super Tuesday. At a minimum, he needs to win one of them to stay viable and avoid going into a tailspin that could set the table for Clinton to wrap up the nomination on Super Tuesday. While Clinton would like to win both, she'll settle for one of them to maintain her status as the national frontrunner. With Obama surging in South Carolina polls, her best chance of the two seems to be Nevada. John Edwards needs to win in Nevada or in his home state of South Carolina next week to finally break through and keep his campaign intact. Otherwise, he'll probably be ignored by the media the rest of the way.

For the Republicans, most of the emphasis will be on South Carolina, so their contest in Nevada will not be such a prestigious affair. This is in spite of the fact that Nevada has 34 delegates up for grab, compared to the 24 in South Carolina. I believe Mitt Romney will be the biggest beneficiary of this scheduling quirk that has South Carolina overshadowing Nevada. He has just come off a big win in Michigan and is the only Republican to have any real organization in Nevada. He has actually de-emphasized his South Carolina campaign in order to spend more time organizing in Nevada. Keep in mind that organization is even more important for caucuses than it is for primaries. In addition, Romney is leading in the Nevada polls. Look for him to win big there and take a majority of the delegates.

As I alluded to above, the South Carolina primary will be the GOP's showcase contest of the day. That's because it serves as the gateway to the south and has proven to be a kingmaker for Republican contenders over the last several contested election cycles. Since 1980, every Republican candidate who has won the South Carolina primary has gone on to capture the nomination. For that reason, it is the most important primary to date for the Republicans. This time, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson are all vying to win it.

John McCain is leading in the polls and understands the importance of the state, as a loss there torpedoed his high-flying campaign eight years ago. He is vowing to not let it happen again this year. This time, he has more backing from party insiders than he did then and is counting on that support to help put him over the top. He also enjoys the support of the state's large veteran population as well as that of many economic conservatives. A win would give him a big momentum bounce going into Florida, solidify his position as the national frontrunner, and make him the odds-on favorite to capture the nomination. However, coming off his disappointing loss in Michigan, anything less than a win in South Carolina, even a close second, would probably doom his campaign again.   

Mike Huckabee is the favorite of social conservatives and evangelical Christians, who, by some estimates, make up 50-60% of the GOP primary voters in the state. Since he has had difficulty broadening his appeal beyond this demographic, he will need to keep most of them in his camp. A win would virtually eliminate his chief southern rival, Fred Thompson. That would enhance Huckabee's chances to win Florida and allow him to dominate the southern primaries held on Super Tuesday. But he doesn't have to win to stay viable. A close second would still keep him in the running, as long as the person finishing first is not named Fred Thompson. Losing to Thompson would be his nightmare scenario. 

If Mitt Romney were to win South Carolina, I believe that would set up a chain of events that would ultimately guarantee him the nomination. However, with his win in Michigan and likely win in Nevada, Romney can get away with a respectable second or third in South Carolina and still come out just fine. He will be competing with McCain for economic conservative voters. He will need a very large majority of them in order to win. However, even if he can't get enough of them to win, he might be able to pull enough of them away from McCain to throw the primary to Huckabee or Thompson.

The arrival of the South Carolina primary means it's time for Fred Thompson to put up or shut up. He's been doing a lot of talking lately but has performed poorly in every contest so far. However, he has been pointing to South Carolina as the place where he will turn things around. If he wins or places a respectable second ahead of Huckabee, he will indeed emerge as a serious candidate once again and have a real shot at Florida and most of the southern Super Tuesday states. If he doesn't, I can't see how his candidacy could go on. He will mainly be competing with Huckabee for the social conservative vote and, like Huckabee, he will need to get a majority of it to have any chance of winning. He may ultimately play the role of spoiler by siphoning off enough votes from Huckabee to give the win to McCain or Romney.

The Red Herring of Mike Huckabee's Opposition

Those who oppose Mike Huckabee's candidacy are now hysterically waving their red flags because of his comments that the Constitution should be amended to reflect God's standards. However, don't these people have a clue as to how the Constitution is actually amended? Amending the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of both the House of Representatives and the Senate and then the approval of three-fourths of the states. It can also be amended via a constitutional convention (but that process has never been used since the Constitution was originally created). Now where exactly, pray tell, is the President's role in this process? The simple truth is that Huckabee (or any other president for that matter) couldn't amend the Constitution, even if he wanted to.

But couldn't he use his influence and bully pulpit to persuade congressman, senators, and state legislators across the country to get it done? Surely he used that influence to get the Arkansas state constitution aligned with biblical teachings while he was governor, didn't he? After all, he held that office for ten years. Well, let's see now. There was the time when he, uh ... and then there was that amendment to, uh, um ... and then, of course, there was ... Oh, I forgot, he didn't have Arkansas's constitution amended during his tenure as governor. Now consider this: If he didn't have enough influence or will to amend a state constitution, how the heck does his frenzied opposition think he would have the influence or power to amend the U.S Constitution?

Therefore I believe these people are just using this situation as a red herring to cover up their real reasons for opposing him. So what's really behind all this fear of a religious bogeyman? I believe it's a combination of secularism and elitism, plain and simple. Over the years, western society has become more and more secular. It started in Europe and has slowly spread to Canada and the U.S. At the same, upper-class elitists, along with those based in Hollywood and the academic world, have begun to have greater influence over the way the middle-class and other regular people think.

All of this has combined to create a kind of widespread religiphobia that has fueled all the bogus separation-of-church-and-state arguments we've seen lately. Too many people now see religion as a threat to their godless lifestyles and will become alarmed whenever any politician openly discusses his or her religious beliefs. I mean those dang religious nuts might actually denounce things that are evil and immoral. Oh my god, no! They might actually stay married and not fool around on the side. What a national disaster! They might actually pray before making important decisions. God forbid! They might actually have respect for human life. How dare they! They might actually follow the golden rule. Let’s start impeachment proceedings right now!

Any politician who upsets elitists and religiphobes as much as Huckabee does ranks high in my book. That's why I can't wait to vote for him when the Virginia primary rolls around on February 12th.

That Magnetic Pull Toward Consensus

Many pundits (including some who should know better) are now predicting that the nomination battle in at least one of the parties will go past Super Tuesday and possibly beyond. That’s nothing but wishful thinking and – mark my word – it won’t happen. Sadly, there is now a sickening trend to end nomination fights early. No doubt, we are all much worse off for it but that’s the reality of modern presidential politics. Gone are the days of smoke-filled rooms and conventions that actually meant something – and they won’t be coming back.

For the last 20 years, there has been this kind of magnetic pull toward consensus that causes parties to want to rally around a given presidential candidate as soon as he or she can string together two or three consecutive primary/caucus wins. So far, no one has been able to do that in 2008. But, when it happens (and someone in each party will do it soon), watch how quickly each party will begin to coalesce around their respective candidate of the hour. Issues, political philosophy, demographics, and regional dynamics will suddenly and strangely become irrelevant. The winning streak will be all that matters. The candidate holding it will begin to win everywhere a contest is held. That’s why I believe Rudy Giuliani is taking such a great risk by waiting until the Florida primary to seriously complete. If someone is on a winning streak at that time, Florida voters will align with that person even if they might be more in agreement with Giuliani on the issues.

This was not always the case. In 1976, Democrat Jimmy Carter began the primary season with a long string of victories. However, about halfway through the process, other Democratic candidates began to win primaries and caucuses. As a result, Carter nearly let the nomination get away from him but was ultimately able to hold on for dear life. That same year, incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford faced an intra-party challenge from Ronald Reagan. Things started out smoothly for Ford as he won all the early contests. However, Reagan soon began piling up primary wins and was almost able to steal the nomination from Ford. In fact, Ford wasn’t actually chosen as the nominee until the convention. The events of 1976 would not have been possible in 2004, for example. Both Carter and Ford would have cruised to their respective party’s nomination because of their wins in the early contests.

Now let’s look at some recent examples. In 1992, native son Tom Harkin won the Iowa Democratic Caucuses and then Paul Tsongas won the New Hampshire Democratic Primary. However, once Bill Clinton was able to put together a couple of consecutive victories in the south, he became the consensus candidate and even started winning in places like New York, where it was once believed that he could never win. It wasn’t long before he was anointed the nominee.

In 1996, after winning Iowa but suffering an embarrassing loss to Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire, Bob Dole came back to win South Carolina. He followed that up with several more victories in a row throughout the south and his native Midwest. After that, he enjoyed a cakewalk to the GOP nomination.

In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore seemed to be facing a tough challenge from Bill Bradley. But after Gore led off with two hard-fought victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Bradley wilted quickly and Gore ran the table, winning every single Democratic primary and caucus that year.  Also that year, George W. Bush and John Mc Cain began the nomination season trading wins back and forth, with Bush winning in Iowa, Virginia, and South Carolina, and McCain winning in New Hampshire and Michigan. However, once Bush was able to win several states in a row, he began to dominate the race and it was soon over.

In 2004, John Kerry won the first two Democratic contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. This created such momentum for him that he was able to win even in places like Virginia. From there, he was quickly catapulted to the nomination. 

Bottom line, there won’t be a long protracted nomination battle in either party, despite how things look now. The nominations will be decided by February 5th or shortly thereafter. There will be no meaningful contests in the spring and certainly no brokered conventions. Only a political amateur would believe otherwise. Remember that I told you so.

The Implications of the Michigan GOP Primary Results

The results of yesterday's GOP primary in Michigan have huge implications for the presidential race.

Mitt Romney's win means he has climbed back into the race as the third Republican candidate to win a major nominating contest. It also virtually assures that he will remain in the race indefinitely and that a GOP nominee will not emerge any sooner than Super Tuesday. Romney now has some of the momentum that had been eluding him before.

He had pulled his ads in Nevada and South Carolina to concentrate on Michigan but he will now put them back up. He is the only GOP candidate who has a great deal of organization in Nevada and is likely to win that state's caucuses on Saturday. He might well be competitive in South Carolina's primary that same day and in Florida's primary 10 days later. After that, he has the resources to compete in every Super Tuesday state if he wants to. No other Republican candidate has that option.

On Super Tuesday, he will be a prohibitive favorite in Massachusetts and Utah and will have a decent shot at winning states like California, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, Connecticut, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Delaware, and Alaska. Not all of the states are winner-take-all, so he could pile up delegates even from states that he doesn't win. Remember that once Super Tuesday rolls around, the race will be all about delegates. Beyond that point, Romney could ultimately win the nomination through a long battle of attrition if no one else is able to nail it down first.

John McCain's loss means he was not able to carry his New Hampshire momentum into Michigan. Although McCain claims Romney's win should have been expected due to his "home field advantage," Michigan was a state that many felt McCain should have won. In fact, shortly after his New Hampshire victory, McCain himself predicted that he would win in Michigan. Eight years ago, Michigan was one of only a handful of states that McCain was able to win in his failed quest for the nomination.

If he is to win the nomination this time, he will create a rare situation in which a candidate loses a given state in a successful nomination that he won in an unsuccessful bid for the nomination. I can only think of one example in which this has happened before. In 1980, George H. W. Bush beat Ronald Reagan in Iowa, but Reagan ultimately won the nomination. However, Bush placed third in Iowa in 1988 but won the nomination that time.

In 2000, independent voters helped McCain win Michigan. They voted in his favor this time as well, but unfortunately for him, they didn't come out in the kind of numbers that they did in 2000. That had to be disappointing, as he was counting on a large number of independents voting Republican since the Democrats were conducting a meaningless primary. The lower number of independent voters voting Republican also highlighted McCain's weakness with Republican voters. In the 2008 contests conducted so far, he has failed to get a majority, or even a plurality, of those voters in any state -- even in New Hampshire, where he won. Going forward, this will be a problem for him unless he can turn those numbers around. Most of the states still to come have closed primaries and caucuses, which are open only to registered Republicans.

McCain got a rather large bounce in momentum coming off his win in New Hampshire. This created a very positive effect for him both in the South Carolina polls and in the national polls. It'll be interesting to see how much of this will now be negated by his disappointing Michigan loss.

Mike Huckabee had once hoped to be competitive in Michigan, but will settle for a distant third-place finish -- his second in a row after his big win in Iowa. Huckabee didn't spend a whole lot of time or resources in Michigan, as he is looking to South Carolina for his next big win. One consolation is that Romney won Michigan, likely slowing McCain's momentum going into South Carolina. Had McCain won, Huckabee's task of defeating him in South Carolina would have been much more difficult. McCain looks to be Huckabee's chief rival there, although Romney and Fred Thompson look to put up strong showings.

Huckabee is depending on a heavy turnout by evangelical Christians in South Carolina, where they are more numerous than they are in Michigan. He will need to keep a strong majority of them to himself. Should someone like Thompson lure a sizeable portion of them into his camp, it could dilute Huckabee's vote and throw South Carolina to McCain.

Once again, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani finished at the back of the pack. However, Thompson is banking on South Carolina to pump life into his campaign. It will be put-up-or-shut-up time for him. Meanwhile, Giuliani is still staking his hopes on Florida. 

Satellite TV Must Change or Die

The satellite TV industry must change its strategy or die. Satellite's current model of settling for the role of "cable on a stick" is not going to work too much longer into the future. Cable has everything satellite is currently offering plus even more innovative things like video-on-demand and IPTV that the satellite providers will never be able to match.

Satellite operators seem bent on wasting their bandwidth on making all local channels available in HDTV. But that's like putting lipstick on a pig. Besides, cable can always provide stuff like that much easier and much better. Instead, the satellite TV should be using all that bandwidth to provide content that cable will never provide, i.e., lots of niche and international channels with programming not available anywhere else. Will they ever do this? Probably not until desperation sets in.

2008 Presidential Campaign Update #15

The Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary have come and gone -- and we still have 11 official entries in the race, seven Republicans and four Democrats, in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes.

The Republicans are Representative Duncan Hunter of California, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.

The Democrats are Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, former North Carolina Senator and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee John Edwards, New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton, and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

Today, I also offer my updated presidential power ratings for both parties, in which I rank the candidates in order of their likelihood to receive their respective party's presidential nomination. At this point, all potential major candidates have either opted in or out. Therefore, only the official candidates will be included in the rankings for the rest of the way. Of course, these rankings will fluctuate with time, as the fortunes of the candidates change and some ultimately drop out. Here's my latest installment:

Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Dennis Kucinich

Republicans:

1. John McCain

2. Mike Huckabee

3. Mitt Romney

4. Rudy Giuliani

5. Fred Thompson

6. Ron Paul

7. Duncan Hunter

Stay tuned for regular updates, with the next one coming around the second week in February.

Nattering Nabobs of Negativism

Remember the phrase, "nattering nabobs of negativism", that Spiro Agnew liked to use to describe his adversaries? Actually, that phrase was coined by his speechwriter, William Safire. Anyway, I'd like borrow it to describe all the people who make a habit of intervening in the lives of others and preventing them getting stuff they want. Thinking they know what's best for everyone, these "nattering nabobs" can always come up with a reason why another person shouldn't have or doesn't need something.

Classic Rants and Raves #29

The defense of "honor" alone never justifies the commission of any kind of violent act, even a punch in the nose. Violence is only justified to defend oneself or someone else from imminent physical harm.    

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Celebrities talk a lot but they usually have very little to say.   

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Something that is yours in name only is not really yours at all.

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I'm somewhat bewildered by people who claim that their children are their life. Maybe I'm having difficultly understanding this concept, since I don't have any kids of my own. However, I can't help wondering what those folks lived for before they had children.

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Have you ever wondered about those microscopic organisms that eat dead flesh? What prevents them from eating living flesh? If they ever mutated in such way that they could start eating living flesh, we would all be in big trouble very quickly!      

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Like many other writers, I have to resist the temptation to get bogged down in minutia.

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I am normally frugal and staunchly against wasting anything, but I'll sometimes make an exception when it comes to safety issues. For example, I'll discard a set of 60,000-mile tires after about 40,000 miles, even if they are still in good shape.

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Did you hear about the couple who had twins, a girl and a boy, and named them Sheila and Heela? The little boy is real monster!

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Some people will get extremely excited about winning $20, while others won't show any emotion at all when winning $20,000. I fall into the latter category. That's why I would never be selected for a game show like The Price is Right.