CommenTerry

The Fallout from the Florida GOP Primary

How did the Florida Republican Primary change the race for the nomination? Let's assess the fallout from that crucial contest conducted two days ago.

John McCain got the big win in Florida that he so desperately needed. McCain is now the clear frontrunner and is in a commanding position to secure the nomination. The race is now McCain's to lose. In the vernacular of his campaign, he might well be "unstoppable" at this point. However, he will have to wait until next week to see if he can become the presumptive nominee. The litmus test will be whether or not he can get more than half the delegates that are up for grabs on Super Tuesday. More than likely, McCain will reach this plateau. However, anything less would leave the outcome of the nomination race still very much in doubt. 

He probably doesn’t have much money left on hand, but should now be able to raise a lot more. However, with less than one week until Super Tuesday, he’ll have to act quickly for it to be of any help to him in all those simultaneous primaries and caucuses. And although he finally broke through in Florida by winning a primary in which only Republicans were voting, he still has yet to win a majority, or even a plurality, of those describing themselves as conservative. Despite these problems, though, McCain will have some major built-in advantages over his rivals on Super Tuesday, which will likely result in his acquisition of the lion’s share of the delegates.

First, his name recognition and current momentum will likely overcome any disadvantages he might have when it comes to money. Second, all four of the states he’s most likely to win that day (Arizona, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) are winner-take-all, while those states his opponents are most likely to win (Massachusetts, Utah, and Colorado for Mitt Romney; Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee for Mike Huckabee) are mostly proportional. That means he will get all the delegates in the states he’s most likely to win, while getting a portion of the delegates in most of the states he’s most likely to lose. Third, places like California, Illinois, Missouri, and Minnesota will be the major battleground states on Super Tuesday and he is currently leading in all of them.

For Mitt Romney, it was a disappointing loss, but he still has plenty of his own money at his disposal in order to fight on and compete on Super Tuesday, if he so chooses. As was the case in Iowa and New Hampshire, he expended far more resources than his opponents, only to finish in second place. A win in Florida would not have guaranteed him the nomination nor would it have even made him the clear frontrunner, but it would have transformed the GOP nomination race into a whole new ball game and all bets would have been off. Romney would have had an advantage in that wide open game because his superior finances.

As it was, he did manage to win a plurality of the conservative vote in Florida and can continue to market himself as the only viable conservative alternative to McCain (although I’m sure Mike Huckabee would have something to say about that). Romney is fully capable of going into delegate acquisition mode -- campaigning and running ads in every state holding a contest that day except for the winner-take-all states that he feels he cannot win. The question remains though: How much of his money is he willing to spend?

Mike Huckabee will stay around to see how many delegates he can gain by winning or performing well in the following Super Tuesday states: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. Since the California primary is mainly just a series of smaller primaries by congressional district, he will also compete in selected areas of that state, especially those that are more socially conservative. I believe his magic number is five, i.e., if could win as many as five states on Super Tuesday, I believe he would be back in the game as the third viable Republican challenger. Three or four wins would allow him to stay in and continue to collect delegates just in case there is a brokered convention. Less than three wins would probably knock him out of the race. 

I’m getting so tired of hearing members of the mainstream media speculate that Huckabee is staying in the race just to siphon votes from Romney and play some kind of “tag-team wresting” game with McCain. This is completely untrue. Huckabee believes he can still be the nominee and, looking at the delegate math, it is still quite possible, although not probable. And besides, a majority of Huckabee voters in Florida indicated that they would have voted for McCain, not Romney, had Huckabee not been in the race. This would seem to refute the conventional wisdom of the media (which we all know is always proven accurate).

Rudy Giuliani, who staked his entire campaign on Florida and came in a distant third, has now dropped out. As many had previously suspected (this writer included), Giuliani’s strategy of waiting until the Florida primary to go all out ultimately backfired on him. The clear frontrunner and heavy favorite throughout much of 2007, Giuliani lost too much momentum by sitting out the earlier states and could never recover it. Of course, once could reasonably argue that his loss of momentum actually began before he decided to sit those states out, hence his decision. That decision just exacerbated his problem instead of correcting it.

The mainstream media pundits are making a big deal about his endorsement of McCain, but I think McCain would be better off had Giuliani just stayed on the sidelines. Giuliani didn’t get many votes (and won only one delegate) in the primaries and caucuses, so he doesn’t bring much to the table there. In addition, every time GOP voters (especially those of the southern conservative persuasion) see Giuliani and McCain together, they are going to be reminded that McCain is more of a centrist on many of the issues that are important to them.

Ron Paul brought up the rear in Florida, but his expectations weren’t very high there. He will now use the multiple primary and caucus format of Super Tuesday as an opportunity to cherry-pick delegates from the smaller states. Under such a format, the major candidates cannot give their full attention to every state, so they will likely pay little attention to states like Maine (which actually holds its caucuses during the weekend before Super Tuesday), Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, and Montana, which are not as delegate-rich as many of the other states that are up for grabs. That’s where Ron Paul comes in. He could devote all of his time and money to these states and end up with a large share of their delegates. He will then hope for a brokered convention in September, at which time he might be able to wield some influence in picking the eventual nominee.

Initial Thoughts on the Florida GOP Primary

John McCain gets the big win in Florida that he so desperately needed. McCain is now the clear frontrunner and is in a commanding position to secure the nomination. The race is now McCain's to lose. In the vernacular of his campaign, he might well be "unstoppable" at this point. However, he will have to wait until next week to see if he can become the presumptive nominee. Rudy Giuliani, who staked his entire campaign on Florida and came in a distant third, will drop out later today and endorse McCain.

For Mitt Romney, it was a disappointing loss, but he still has plenty of his own money to go on and compete on Super Tuesday. He will likely go into delegate acquisition mode, campaigning and running ads in every state holding a contest that day except for winner-take-all states that he feels he cannot win.

Mike Huckabee will stay around to see how many delegates he can gain by winning or performing well in the following Super Tuesday states: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. He will also compete in various congressional districts of California, especially those that are more socially conservative.   

Tomorrow I will offer my complete analysis of the results and where I think the race is likely headed.

Classic Rants and Raves #30

Every time I answer my phone or open my mailbox, my to-do list gets a little bit longer!      

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Whenever you're asked to speculate about some future event or occurrence, you can't go wrong by saying, "I don't know."   

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I have difficulty understanding people who let their anger get out of control to the point of doing something that will get them in trouble. No matter how angry I get about something done to me or someone else, I'm always mindful to not do anything that would result in my getting into some type of trouble.

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TV newscasters seem to believe that they are the keepers of all practical knowledge. They often talk down to all of us dummies out in "TV land" as if we don't even have the most basic of common sense.

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Have you ever gone to a mall on New Year's morning? No one is there!   

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If everyone in a room, except for you, is laughing, then one of three things is probably true: (1) they are laughing at you, (2) you didn't get the joke, or (3) your sense of humor leaves a lot to be desired.

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The airwaves, newspapers, and the Internet are all inundated with expressions of partisanship on all sides, but they are all severely lacking when it comes to expressions of common sense, logic, and reason.

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The dark side of charity, relief efforts, and welfare programs is that many of the recipients of such aid soon develop a sense of entitlement.

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It's rather ironic how most young people, who should be saving their money, spend it as fast as they earn it; while most older people, who should be spending their money, hold onto it for dear life.

Listen to Sales Pitches Very Carefully

It is very important to listen to what people actually say instead of what they want you to hear. This is especially true when watching commercials on TV or listening to them on the radio. For example, in a commercial for a pain reliever, someone might say, "no pain reliever is better than ours." What its producers want to you to hear is, "our pain reliever works the best", even though that is not what could be legally stated.

The Impact of Obama's Big Win in South Carolina

Barrack Obama got a much needed, although expected, win in South Carolina yesterday. However, no one expected it to be the landslide that it was. The polls (you gotta love 'em) just can't seem to get the Democratic primaries right. They all had Obama winning in New Hampshire -- he lost. They had Obama winning by anywhere from eight to 16 percent in South Carolina -- he won in a blowout by 28 percent, more than doubling Hillary Clinton's total. As was the case in Nevada last week, he dominated the African-American vote, getting over 80% of it. But he also managed to attract nearly a quarter of the white vote.

Obama's win in South Carolina pulls him even with Clinton in wins at two apiece and sets him up to be very competitive on Super Tuesday. Although Clinton currently leads in the polls of most of the Super Tuesday states, expect to see them begin to narrow over the next several days, as a result of the bounce in momentum Obama will surely get. Obama will almost certainly win Illinois, his home state, and Georgia, a state where African-Americans make up an even larger portion of the Democratic electorate than they do in South Carolina.

He will also have a shot at winning Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri, which also have large black populations. Massachusetts is also looking good for him now, with tomorrow's expected endorsement by Ted Kennedy. That will give Obama the endorsements of the state's governor and both senators. An addition, although he will probably not win New York or New Jersey, he will be able to target pockets in both of those states where large numbers of African-Americans reside. After all is said and done on Super Tuesday, he could conceivably pick up nearly as many delegates that day as Clinton. Therefore, the race for the Democratic nomination could potentially go on well past Super Tuesday and into early spring. 

The size of her loss in South Carolina has to be a major setback for Clinton. It may have occurred as a result of a backlash from South Carolina voters, both black and white, who were offended by Hillary and Bill Clinton's criticism of Obama. Hillary will now need to regroup and attempt to divert the voting public's attention away from her embarrassing loss. However, she is still the frontrunner for now and will be until such time as Obama overtakes her in the national polls and/or moves ahead of her in total delegates.

Where Is it Going to Stop?

Some U.S. companies now forbid their employees from smoking, even at home. While I believe those companies have every right to enforce such a policy, I wouldn't want to work for any of them, just on general principle. Even though I have never smoked, I would be concerned about the potential "slippery slope" effect. For example, who's to say they wouldn't soon forbid their employees from eating junk food and/or watching too much TV? Also, would they soon start requiring their employees to exercise regularly and be active in the community?

Why Not Solve Two Problems at Once?

I have an idea that would help remedy both the military personnel shortage and prison overcrowding at the same time. Give some criminals the option of enlisting in the military in lieu of all or a portion of their prison time. Hardened criminals and drug addicts would be excluded. This option would be generally limited to young, first time offenders whose sentences would normally range from one to five years. Military service would be an excellent way to get many young offenders back on the right track and away from the revolving doors of prison life.

What's So Ethical About Letting People Die?

I understand the reasons why allowing people to sell their organs would create an ethical problem. However, people are dying everyday while waiting for organs they never get. Paying people for donating their organs would greatly increase the supply and make them available to those who would not otherwise get them. Am I supposed to believe that the selling of organs is more unethical than allowing people to die when they could be saved?

Mike Huckabee's Plan B

As I outlined in an earlier article, Mike Huckabee's original plan for capturing the Republican presidential nomination included a win in South Carolina. Obviously, that plan has now gone by the wayside. But does Huckabee have a "Plan B"? I believe he does and we will see it coming into play beginning in Florida.

As part of that plan, Huckabee is likely to discontinue campaigning in Florida well ahead of next week's primary. I believe his reasons are twofold. First, with limited resources in hand and Florida being a winner-take-all state, why would he want to spend a large portion of them there, only to finish second, third, or fourth and have no delegates to show for it? His money and time would  be better spent in states where he would have a better chance to win or at least come away with some delegates.

Second, if Huckabee feels that he cannot win Florida, it would be in his best interest to have Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney win it to keep the race wide open going into Super Tuesday. A win there by John McCain would effectively end the race and wrap up the nomination for him. If Huckabee were to stop campaigning in Florida, it is likely that many of his potential voters in the Sunshine State would switch to Romney, possibly throwing the state to the former Massachusetts governor. However, Huckabee's absence in Florida would probably not help Giuliani, whose potential voters are the polar opposite of those who lean toward Huckabee. Actually, a Giuliani win in Florida would be better for Huckabee than a Romney win. But a Giuliani win with Romney coming in second would be the ideal scenario for the former Arkansas governor.

On Super Tuesday and beyond, Huckabee feels that he can win all the remaining southern states. (By the way, Florida is not a true southern state anymore because of all its transplanted residents, mainly retirees, from the northeast corridor). But what gives Huckabee reason to believe he can win the remaining southern states when he couldn't win South Carolina? Well, because there were two things at play in South Carolina that won't be in the other southern states. First, there was Fred Thompson siphoning off social conservative votes. Thompson is now gone. Second, even with Thompson in the race in South Carolina, Huckabee still won a plurality of the votes of registered Republicans. Had South Carolina been a closed primary, he would have won it. Independent votes gave McCain his victory in the Palmetto State. However, in most of the remaining states in Dixie, Republicans hold closed primaries. 

Now, winning southern states alone cannot give Huckabee the GOP nomination. However, he could parlay those victories into wins in other socially conservative states (as least as far as GOP voters are concerned) from the Midwest and west. States like Alaska, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, the Dakotas, Montana, and Idaho come to mind. And didn't Pennsylvania once elect extreme social conservative Rick Santorum to the U.S. Senate and anti-abortion Democrat Bob Casey to the governor's mansion? That seems like fertile ground for Huckabee as well. Remember, he did win in Iowa, which no one considers to be a southern state.

A Partial List of My Pet Peeves

The other day, I saw an article on the Web in which various people listed their pet peeves. That got me thinking about some of my own. Here is a (non-exhaustive) list of them: 

1) People who make unnecessary noise when they walk.

2) People who mispronounce words like nuclear (as “nukular”), jewelry (as “jewlery”), realtor, (as “realator”), chocolate (as “chalkolate”), and focus (as “fokiss”).

3) People who wait for parking spaces even when there are plenty of empty spaces a little further away.

4) People who tailgate on the roads.

5) People who habitually drive more than 10 mph above the posted speed limit.

6) People who run red lights.

7) People who change lanes excessively.

8) People who leave shopping carts in parking lots and refuse to take them to the proper cart returns or back inside the store.

9) People who pull out from intersections at the last second and force me to hit my brakes to avoiding crashing into them.

10) People who can’t seem to wait their turn, especially those who cut into lines.

11) People who use foul language excessively.

12) Parents who can't (or won't) control their small children.

13) People who meddle in the lives of others by constantly offering unsolicited and unwanted advice.

14) People who won't return things to where they found them.

15) People who write articles but don’t really know how to write. They are the kind of folks who are consistently guilty of one or more of the following faux pas: Not knowing which words to capitalize in the title (or in the body of the article, for that matter), lack of proofreading, incoherent rambling, spelling errors, grammatical errors, improper usage, excessive repetition (usually due either to laziness or a limited vocabulary), and poor sentence structure. It irks me to no end to see their articles posted right alongside mine.