A Preview of Today's Caucuses and Primary

Tomorrow's big contests will be in New England and Green Bay, but today they will be held in Nevada and South Carolina. Let's take a look at what to expect.

Both the Democrats and Republicans will be holding caucuses in Nevada today. For the Democrats, it will be a much more high-profile event, with all three of the top contenders fighting tooth-and-nail to win there. Hillary Clinton has the backing of party insiders, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's son, Rory, who serves as the state chairman for her campaign. Barack Obama has the endorsement of the large and influential Culinary Workers Union. John Edwards doesn't have either if these advantages, but his campaign themes seem to resonate with the state's union workers, African-Americans, and Hispanics. Clinton appears to be holding a slight lead in the Nevada polls.

A federal judge recently dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Nevada State Education Association to block nine caucuses from being held at Las Vegas casinos, where most of the members of the Culinary Workers Union are employed. While the Clinton campaign claims to have had nothing to do with this suit, the Obama campaign would certainly have cried foul if it had been successful. Charges of disenfranchisement would have started flying, as those culinary workers would have found it more difficult, if not impossible, to participate in the caucuses if they had to leave the casinos where they work and go home to their communities of residence to cast their votes. The judge's decision was obviously a big boost for Obama.

Obama needs to win both in Nevada today and in South Carolina next week to regain the momentum he lost to Clinton in New Hampshire and gain a leg up on her, going into Super Tuesday. At a minimum, he needs to win one of them to stay viable and avoid going into a tailspin that could set the table for Clinton to wrap up the nomination on Super Tuesday. While Clinton would like to win both, she'll settle for one of them to maintain her status as the national frontrunner. With Obama surging in South Carolina polls, her best chance of the two seems to be Nevada. John Edwards needs to win in Nevada or in his home state of South Carolina next week to finally break through and keep his campaign intact. Otherwise, he'll probably be ignored by the media the rest of the way.

For the Republicans, most of the emphasis will be on South Carolina, so their contest in Nevada will not be such a prestigious affair. This is in spite of the fact that Nevada has 34 delegates up for grab, compared to the 24 in South Carolina. I believe Mitt Romney will be the biggest beneficiary of this scheduling quirk that has South Carolina overshadowing Nevada. He has just come off a big win in Michigan and is the only Republican to have any real organization in Nevada. He has actually de-emphasized his South Carolina campaign in order to spend more time organizing in Nevada. Keep in mind that organization is even more important for caucuses than it is for primaries. In addition, Romney is leading in the Nevada polls. Look for him to win big there and take a majority of the delegates.

As I alluded to above, the South Carolina primary will be the GOP's showcase contest of the day. That's because it serves as the gateway to the south and has proven to be a kingmaker for Republican contenders over the last several contested election cycles. Since 1980, every Republican candidate who has won the South Carolina primary has gone on to capture the nomination. For that reason, it is the most important primary to date for the Republicans. This time, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson are all vying to win it.

John McCain is leading in the polls and understands the importance of the state, as a loss there torpedoed his high-flying campaign eight years ago. He is vowing to not let it happen again this year. This time, he has more backing from party insiders than he did then and is counting on that support to help put him over the top. He also enjoys the support of the state's large veteran population as well as that of many economic conservatives. A win would give him a big momentum bounce going into Florida, solidify his position as the national frontrunner, and make him the odds-on favorite to capture the nomination. However, coming off his disappointing loss in Michigan, anything less than a win in South Carolina, even a close second, would probably doom his campaign again.   

Mike Huckabee is the favorite of social conservatives and evangelical Christians, who, by some estimates, make up 50-60% of the GOP primary voters in the state. Since he has had difficulty broadening his appeal beyond this demographic, he will need to keep most of them in his camp. A win would virtually eliminate his chief southern rival, Fred Thompson. That would enhance Huckabee's chances to win Florida and allow him to dominate the southern primaries held on Super Tuesday. But he doesn't have to win to stay viable. A close second would still keep him in the running, as long as the person finishing first is not named Fred Thompson. Losing to Thompson would be his nightmare scenario. 

If Mitt Romney were to win South Carolina, I believe that would set up a chain of events that would ultimately guarantee him the nomination. However, with his win in Michigan and likely win in Nevada, Romney can get away with a respectable second or third in South Carolina and still come out just fine. He will be competing with McCain for economic conservative voters. He will need a very large majority of them in order to win. However, even if he can't get enough of them to win, he might be able to pull enough of them away from McCain to throw the primary to Huckabee or Thompson.

The arrival of the South Carolina primary means it's time for Fred Thompson to put up or shut up. He's been doing a lot of talking lately but has performed poorly in every contest so far. However, he has been pointing to South Carolina as the place where he will turn things around. If he wins or places a respectable second ahead of Huckabee, he will indeed emerge as a serious candidate once again and have a real shot at Florida and most of the southern Super Tuesday states. If he doesn't, I can't see how his candidacy could go on. He will mainly be competing with Huckabee for the social conservative vote and, like Huckabee, he will need to get a majority of it to have any chance of winning. He may ultimately play the role of spoiler by siphoning off enough votes from Huckabee to give the win to McCain or Romney.

Comments

[Dianne Pearce]

Isn't it interesting that Mitt Romney says he is TOTALLY AGAINST POLYGAMY - yet he lives his life looking forward to an afterlife where he'll be a SUPER POLYGAMIST with his own planet and his own Goddess Wives.

Mormon men are taught that after death (and if they are righteous) they will live forever as GODS over THEIR OWN PLANET - having unlimited sexual relations with MULTIPLE GODDESS WIVES so as to populate their own planet.

How can Mitt Romney say he is against something he believes is one of the greatest rewards in the afterlife. DO YOU really want a PRESIDENT who disavows something in his earthly life that he covets and aspires to in the afterlife?

Are you aware that Mitt Romney has performed death oath rituals hundreds of times in which he has drawn his thumb across his throat from side to side as if he were slitting his own throat and another where he has drawn his thumb across his abdomen as if he were disemboweling himself?

I am a former Mormon. I graduated from BYU. I was married in the Wash, DC temple.

I vehemently believe in freedom of religion. However, I am concerned that someone who professes questionable beliefs and who has participated in cult-like rituals involving grisly death-oath might become our President.

This information is not widely available to the general public. Mormons profess - what goes on in the temple is "sacred, not secret." Well if they are so sacred and "not secret" then why was I asked to make death oaths swearing I would not divulge what I had seen and experienced in the temple?

Visit my blog at http://justicefreedom4all.blogspot.com/ to see video re-enactments of the actual temple rituals and interviews with other individuals who also experienced the Mormon Temple rituals.

After participating in these rituals myself, I could no longer hold the Mormon faith in my heart and in my mind. As I exited the Wash, DC Mormon temple after going through the rituals for the first time I was asked by other Mormon's who accompanied me what I thought about what I had seen and experienced.

My response was that if those ceremonies/teaching were indeed of God, then I would rather go to hell with non-Mormons.

I feel that this information needs to be disseminated immediately. Voters must have this "sacred, not secret" information so they can make their own decisions about whether a practicing Mormon would be their choice under all circumstances of national security.

How meaningful will an oath of office be for someone who makes death oaths to their God in the name of their religion?

And what I find even more frightening - why is mainstream media treating these Mormon issues like the naked Emperor is marching by?

I can longer live in fear of the millions of Mormons who have taken the death oaths. Citizens of America have a right to the facts.

Dianne Pearce
Phone: 636-675-5232
Email: dpearce@erols.com