CommenTerry

A Tale of Two Cases

Two recent criminal cases in my part of the country have, once again, made me question the fairness of our criminal justice system. The cases involved two local women who had no previous criminal record.

In the first case, a highly touted babysitter was hired to care for a two-year-old boy. One afternoon, the child was being particularly noisy and bothersome. His caretaker reacted by retrieving a heavy crate-like object and placing it over his crib to keep him from standing up. However, the energetic youngster soon discovered a way to escape. Unfortunately, as he was in process of doing so, his neck became trapped between the heavy object and the crib. As a result, he was asphyxiated before the sitter took note of what was going on. She was found guilty of involuntary manslaughter and will be sentenced later this year. The judge has warned her to come prepared to go to jail.   

In the second case, a payroll clerk for a local school system embezzled $38,000 from the county over a 2 ½ year period. She had been diverting the money into her own bank account and spending it on her family members. She was ultimately caught and fired from her job. She was indicted by a grand jury on 46 felony counts, but made a deal with prosecutors by pleading guilty to nine of them. Still, though, she could have been sentenced to over 100 years in prison. The judge sentenced her to 90 years in prison, but suspended all of it on the condition that she serve six months in the county jail. More than like likely, she will be able to serve her entire sentence on weekends.

Now, let’s compare the two cases. The babysitter was guilty of a momentary error in judgment that was never intended to produce the results that it did. On the other hand, the payroll clerk committed her crimes over the course of 2 ½ years. Her goal was to steal, and that’s exactly what she did. She knew she was committing a felony and thereby risking a long prison sentence, but the money was more important to her. She didn’t stop until she was caught. She would likely still be doing it, had she not been caught. Any of us, like that babysitter, could make a bad, spur-of-the-mount decision when feeling pressed or frustrated. Very few of us would do what that payroll clerk did, i.e., plan out a long-term crime.   

If the babysitter is sentenced to more than six months in jail and/or is not allowed to serve her sentence on weekends, it will be a gross miscarriage of justice and a crying shame.

Should You Make Extra Principal Payments?

Many financial advisors will recommend that home owners include a little additional principal with their mortgage payments each month. For a just little extra each month, they can take years off the end of their payment schedules. Very often, an extra principal amount of just $25 per month and can wipe out as many as five years from the end of a payment schedule, in effect reducing a 30-year mortgage to just 25 years.

Similarly, others recommend setting up a bi-weekly payment schedule, which will result in the equivalent of 13 full mortgage payments a year. This, too, will cut years from the end of a mortgage payment schedule. Therefore, with very little effort and for only a minimal of extra money, people can greatly reduce the amount they have to pay back over the life of their mortgages. 

So, this is no-brainer, right? Shouldn’t everyone be doing it? Well, not really. Like many other things in life, it’s not as good as it sounds. If you never have trouble making your mortgage payment and you intend to keep your house until you pay it off, then you can greatly benefit from sending in those extra principal payments. If not, it may not be such great idea.

Let’s suppose you make those extra payments that result in five years theoretically being chopped from the end of your payment schedule, but then you decide to sell after being in the house only 15 years. What kind of benefit would the extra money ultimately get you? You would get none at all. That’s right -- you would get absolutely no benefit from having sent in all that extra principal money.

The benefit is derived from taking payments away from the end of the schedule. It is completely a back-end benefit. However, if you don’t allow yourself to get to that point, you will never realize a benefit. But don’t you benefit from less principal to pay off when the sale is made? You do, but you can get a greater benefit by putting that extra money in a savings account each month instead of sending it in to your mortgage company. At least, you could get some interest on your money by putting it in savings. The mortgage keeps your money, interest-free.

Here’s another thing to consider as well. If you sometimes have trouble making your mortgage payment, it is probably not a good idea to send in the extra principal. The reason is that the extra money you send in this month will not help you next month or the month after that. Let’s say you have an $800 per month mortgage and send in an extra $200 for four consecutive months. However, in the fifth month, you suffer a setback and cannot make the payment. The mortgage company will not use the use the extra $800 you paid over the previous four months as a substitute for the fifth month’s payment. You will be in default.

You would do better to sock away any extra money you might have in a given month and use it to pay your mortgage in those months when money is tight. It would be a shame to have your house foreclosed on in spite of the fact that you actually paid more over the time you had it than you actually had to.

NFL Announcers Need to Think Before They Speak

Many NFL announcers obviously don't always think before they speak. For example, I've often heard them claim that a given team would have seven additional points right now (the third quarter) had a first quarter touchdown they scored not been nullified by a penalty. However, the team scored a touchdown that counted two plays later during the same drive. Therefore, the penalty did not ultimately cost them any points.

Random Rants and Raves #115

Why do local politicians constantly bombard us with irrelevant information like how long they've been married and how many children they have?          

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Sign next to a supermarket checkout line: "Please do not play with balls." 

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You can rest assured that a certain number of the things you own will bring break down and need major repair or replacement during each year. You just don't know which ones. At any rate, always be prepared by putting money away for such eventualities. 

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Smelling the coffee is good for everyone -- some of us just can't drink it unless it's decaffeinated. 

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Nothing is so obvious as self-serving behavior disguised as altruism. 

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Beware of fried chicken that has no smell to it. 

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What do rotten fruit and punctured beverage containers have in common? Answer: You usually don't discover either until you get home from the grocery store.  

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Any time I sit down during the summer to watch a baseball game, I find myself yearning for the start of football season.

It’s the Momentum, Stupid

Is it possible that one or both of the major party presidential nominations could be, for all practical purposes, decided after just two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, have voted? This may sound crazy to the casual observer of American politics, but the answer is yes. But how can that be, with Iowa and New Hampshire being such small states and accounting for only a miniscule portion of the national delegate count in either party? The catalyst is here not the size of the states or their raw numbers of delegates, of course, but the momentum those states can provide. 

If one of the “Big Three” Democrats (Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards) or one of the “Big Four” Republicans (Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, John McCain) were to win his or her party’s Iowa Caucuses and its New Hampshire Primary, this scenario could easily be played out. With so many actual and potential resources in hand, any of those candidates would own such an overwhelming advantage after having won both of those states that their rivals would practically be on life support at that point. And with the front-end-loaded primary schedule as it is now, they would have little or no chance to recover.

But what if one of the second or third tier candidates happened to win both Iowa and New Hampshire? In this case, the nomination battle would still be wide open as any of the Big Three or Big Four would have enough resources to overcome his advantage. However, if the person winning Iowa and New Hampshire were to continue running the table through Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida, the race could still be over before Super Tuesday (February 5th), as even the candidates with seemingly endless resources would likely be mortally wounded by that point.

For a prime example of how those early states can provide such powerful momentum in the nominating process, one need not look any further than the 2004 Democratic presidential nominating season. In December of 2003, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean had become the frontrunner and prohibitive favorite to capture the nomination. He had raised, by far, the most of money of any Democratic candidate, including Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. In fact, Kerry‘s campaign was in such dire need of money that he and his wife decided to loan it $6 million from their personal fortune. In addition, his poll numbers were beginning to crater in New Hampshire. In an effort to focus his limited resources, he pulled most of his staff out of New Hampshire and brought them to Iowa, where he was only doing somewhat better. He was staking his entire campaign on a good performance in Iowa. As was the case just about everywhere at the time, Dean was enjoying a sizable lead in the polls there as well.

In January of 2004, Kerry’s gamble paid off as he scored a surprising victory in the Iowa Caucuses, with Dean finishing a disappointing third. Kerry’s political fortunes began to turn around almost immediately. His New Hampshire poll numbers reversed their trend and, by the weekend before the primary, he had moved into first place. Kerry edged out Dean to win the New Hampshire Primary and take over the mantle of frontrunner. From there, Dean was no longer a factor as Kerry practically swept through the remaining primaries and caucuses on his way to the nomination, losing only a handful of contests to various candidates. 

This time around, the candidates are once again focused on Iowa and New Hampshire. They know these states are where the race is likely to be won or lost. They understand the power of momentum in presidential politics.

Only These Things Merit the Death Penalty

Earlier, I mentioned that the death penalty should only be used for a few types of murder, but I didn't elaborate at that time. They are as follows: gang-related murders, organized crime "hits" (those who plan, order, and/or carry them out), any murder committed by someone who has previously been convicted of murder, murders of prison inmates by other prison inmates, serial murders, execution-style murders, murders involving torture or intentional extended death, murders of people who couldn't pay their drug, gambling, and/or prostitution-related debts, murders of empty-handed police officers, and intentional murders by those in the process of committing armed robbery or burglary.

For Mike Huckabee: New Life or a Stay of Execution?

This past Saturday afternoon, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign seemed headed for oblivion. Strapped by money problems, he was unable to complete financially with the likes of Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback for voters at the Ames GOP Presidential Straw Poll. After having earlier staked so much on this event, it appeared that he was destined to finish no better than a distant third. Such a result would likely have sent his campaign to the proverbial showers.

However, when the votes were finally counted, Huckabee got a very pleasant surprise. He had finished a strong second to Romney, garnering a vote total that amounted to more than half of what the former Massachusetts governor received. Most importantly, however, he was able to edge out Brownback, his biggest rival for the social conservative vote. Most media outlets deemed him the “real winner” of the straw poll. Instead of going to bed Saturday night to ponder what might have been, he slept soundly with visions of southern primaries dancing in his head.

But will the straw poll results give his campaign new life or just a stay of execution? This remains to be seen. Many agree that Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist pastor, is a likeable candidate with a broad appeal that reaches far beyond his natural social conservative base. They also agree that he is a good debater who has performed well at each of the Republican presidential forums.

His obvious problem is money – he hasn’t raised much of it. Curiously, his impressive debate performances did not aid his fundraising efforts. He can only hope that his feat of exceeding expectations in the straw poll will. If it won’t, I’m not sure what else he can do at this point. Over the next several weeks, he’ll have to spend most of this time playing a game of “show me the money” with all of his actual and potential supporters. If he can succeed, he could become a major player in the race for the GOP nomination. In addition, he would likely be able force Brownback to the sidelines and minimize potential candidate Fred Thompson’s impact with southern conservative primary voters. But he needs the money and it’s now or never.

2008 Presidential Campaign Update #10

We're now midway through the third quarter of 2007 -- but still nearly five months from the first caucuses and primaries -- and we have 16 official entries, eight Republicans and eight Democrats, in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes.

The Republicans are Representative Duncan Hunter of California, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, and Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo.

The Democrats are former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, former North Carolina Senator and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee John Edwards, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

Today, I also offer my updated presidential power ratings for both parties, in which I rank the current and prospective candidates in order of their likelihood to receive their respective party's presidential nomination. Of course, these rankings will fluctuate with time, as the fortunes of the candidates change, some drop out, and new ones emerge. Here's my latest installment:

Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Bill Richardson

5. Joe Biden

6. Chris Dodd

7. Dennis Kucinich

8. Mike Gravel

Republicans:

1. Rudy Giuliani

2. Fred Thompson

3. Mitt Romney

4. John McCain

5. Newt Gingrich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. Sam Brownback

8. Ron Paul

9. Tom Tancredo

10. Duncan Hunter

Stay tuned for regular updates, with the next one coming around the second week in September.

The End Has Been Coming for Quite a While Now

I think it's safe to ignore the so-called "end times" predictions being circulated by many pastors and authors these days. Many of these works such as the "Left Behind" series are very popular and make for very intriguing reading.

However, I'd take it all with a grain of salt. The people who make predictions like this have, throughout the centuries, been like broken clocks. They make so many predictions that many of them are bound to come true. Then, when they do, these people will claim "prophecy fulfillment", ignoring all of their incorrect predictions, which are far more numerous.

The truth is that only God knows what the future holds and doesn't want us wasting our time trying to outguess Him. Our duty as Christians is to live obedient lives, put our trust in God, and leave the future to Him.

The Ames GOP Straw Poll: A Postmortem

Here are the official vote percentages from the Ames Republican Presidential Straw Poll:

1. Mitt Romney -- 31.6%

2. Mike Huckabee -- 18.1%

3. Sam Brownback -- 15.3%

4. Tom Tancredo -- 13.7%

5. Ron Paul -- 9.1%

6. Tommy Thompson -- 7.3%

7. Fred Thompson -- 1.4%

8. Rudy Giuliani -- 1.3%

9. Duncan Hunter -- 1.2%

10. John McCain -- 0.7%

11. John Cox -- 0.3%

Analysis:

Mitt Romney got the win he wanted, although it could be said that his margin of victory should have been higher, considering the fact that his three major rivals sat it out. Whatever the case, barring any kind of major misstep or monumental collapse on his part in the next five months, this win makes him an even more prohibitive favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses in January. Even though his numbers are still not very impressive in national polls, he's still solidly ahead in New Hampshire as well. His obvious strategy is to win both of those key early states, regardless of his current national standing. One must go back to 1972 to find the last major party candidate (Edmund Muskie) who failed to capture his party's presidential nomination, despite winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. I'm sure Romney is quite aware of this fact.

Mike Huckabee was the big winner of the night. His second place finish seemed to surprise even the candidate himself. He spent less than Sam Brownback but still edged Brownback out for the social conservative vote. Huckabee now needs to take the momentum he will obviously gain and use it to start raising more money.

Though finishing solidly in third place, Brownback has to be disappointed that his main rival, Huckabee, finished ahead of him. It's hard to see how Brownback will be able to claim a niche from this point on, as Huckabee now seems to have claimed the mantle of social conservative champion. However, don't look for Brownback to drop out any time soon.

Tom Tancredo's double-digit, fourth-place finish has to be a moral victory for him. He is near the bottom in almost every national and state poll of likely GOP primary and caucus voters, usually coming in at no more than one or two percent. However, his strong anti-immigration rhetoric apparently caught fire with many straw poll goers. Now he needs to get voters outside the borders of the Hawkeye State to pay him some attention.

Ron Paul was hoping to finish higher than fifth, but that's much better than he's doing in most polls right now. Although he has small cells of rabid support in every state, he'll need to improve his organizational ability between now and January if he hopes to be competitive in the real Iowa Caucuses.

This is probably the end of the road for Tommy Thompson. He spent a lot of his resources on this straw poll and had banked on finishing at least third. In addition, he has visited Iowa more than any other candidate and is the only GOP contender from a neighboring state (Wisconsin). His message has just not caught on and he will likely exit the race very soon.

Duncan Hunter, on the other hand, will likely hang on indefinitely. However, finishing behind two candidates who didn't even participate in the event just shores up his status as an also-ran who is just along for the ride.

I believe Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson will all rue the day they decided to skip the straw poll. For one thing, the Iowa Republican Party will likely blame their absence for the fact that the turnout, which many had projected would be between 35,000 and 50,000, was just over 14,000. That was much lower than the 23,000 who participated in the event in 1999. It also allowed Romney to solidify his stronghold on the state and opened the door for Huckabee to move up -- at their expense. Any possibility that one of them can stop Romney in Iowa has likely gone out the window. They now must pin their hopes on New Hampshire to stop Romney's momentum.