2008 Presidential Campaign Update #10

We're now midway through the third quarter of 2007 -- but still nearly five months from the first caucuses and primaries -- and we have 16 official entries, eight Republicans and eight Democrats, in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes.

The Republicans are Representative Duncan Hunter of California, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, and Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo.

The Democrats are former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, former North Carolina Senator and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee John Edwards, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

Today, I also offer my updated presidential power ratings for both parties, in which I rank the current and prospective candidates in order of their likelihood to receive their respective party's presidential nomination. Of course, these rankings will fluctuate with time, as the fortunes of the candidates change, some drop out, and new ones emerge. Here's my latest installment:

Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Bill Richardson

5. Joe Biden

6. Chris Dodd

7. Dennis Kucinich

8. Mike Gravel

Republicans:

1. Rudy Giuliani

2. Fred Thompson

3. Mitt Romney

4. John McCain

5. Newt Gingrich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. Sam Brownback

8. Ron Paul

9. Tom Tancredo

10. Duncan Hunter

Stay tuned for regular updates, with the next one coming around the second week in September.

Comments

[Buckwheat]

You have Ron Paul way too low. Intrade has him at 4th, and even the slow National Journal has him at 6th. Putting him at 8th is ridiculous.

[Terry Mitchell]

Hey Buckwheat, I'm a Ron Paul fan too, but I tend to play things cautiously to avoid disappointments. I believe Dr. Paul will move up as we head toward January. I fully expect him to move into the top four by then -- but I'm not placing any bets. How could he get there? I believe Gingrich will ultimately decide not to get in, and that Brownback, Thompson, and McCain will crash and burn before the end of this year.

Could Ron Paul actually win the nomination? It's possible, but he's first going to have to figure out how to turn his deep Internet support into actual votes at the early caucuses and primaries. A top three finish in Iowa could position him for a possible win in New Hampshire (as Democrats and independents can and would cross over and vote for him there). Then, if that happens, look for an all-out "Stop Paul" effort by the GOP establishment. He would then have to avoid Pat Buchanan's fate of 1996 and McCain's fate of 2000. It's not going to be easy.

[Anonymous]

You have Obama way too high. After his repeated fiascos he should not rank anywhere above number five.

Also, with ten republican candidates listed you may want to change the numbers in the first half of the post.

[Terry Mitchell]

Anonymous, no numbers need to be changed. The numbers in the first half of the post represent just the actual announced candidates. The power rankings include potential candidates as well. That was intentional.