A Look Ahead to the Ames GOP Straw Poll

The August 11 GOP presidential straw poll in Ames, Iowa is quickly approaching. Although Rudy Guiliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson will be sitting it out, this nonbinding political beauty contest could be make-or-break for many of the other seven candidates. Let me be among the first to offer a prediction for the order of finish:

1. Mitt Romney

2. Ron Paul

3. Tommy Thompson

4. Mike Huckabee

5. Sam Brownback

6. Duncan Hunter

7. Tom Tancredo

Analysis: Romney's strong win will solidify his standing in the Iowa polls. Paul's second place finish will give him little more than short-term bragging rights. Tommy Thompson's third place finish will provide him with just enough encouragement to hang around for a while, perhaps through the real Iowa Caucuses in January. Goodbye Huckabee, Brownback, Hunter, and Tancredo.

By the way, Ron Paul is in a good position to play the part of a spoiler in Ames, i.e., he could eliminate or damage some of the serious candidates -- even though he doesn't (and will never) have a serious chance at the GOP nomination himself.

Remember Pat Buchanan in 1996? There was no way Buchanan was ever going to be the GOP nominee. However, he knocked Phil Gramm out of the race by defeating him in the Louisiana Caucuses and nearly sunk Bob Dole (the eventual nominee) by defeating him in New Hampshire.

If Paul finishes a close second to Romney in Ames, that could cause Romney's campaign to begin unraveling. It would also knock out at least three of the other candidates.