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2008 Presidential Contender: Mike Huckabee

Republican Mike Huckabee joined the 2008 presidential race on Sunday. Huckabee is the former governor of Arkansas who left office earlier this month. He hails from Hope - the same hometown as former President Bill Clinton, a previous governor of Arkansas.

The ordained Baptist minister and former televangelist made his political debut by winning a special election for lieutenant governor in 1993. He was subsequently elected to a full four-year term as lieutenant governor in 1994. He was elevated to governor in 1996 when Democratic Governor Jim Guy Tucker resigned in a plea deal connected with the Whitewater scandal. In 1998, Huckabee was elected to his first full term as governor and then re-elected in 2002. He was elected to a one-year term as chairman of the National Governors Association in July of 2005.

Huckabee is a solid social conservative who has track record of opposing abortion as well as gay marriage and civil unions. In addition, he has been a strong supporter of President Bush and his handling of the war in Iraq. He will likely compete with Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo for social conservative votes in his quest for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. However, of those five candidates, Huckabee is this only southerner. This could make him an attractive choice for southern primary voters.

That is, of course, if he can survive Iowa and New Hampshire. Survival for him will probably mean finishing in the top three in Iowa and the top two in New Hampshire. Coming out of those two states as the only surviving social conservative in the nomination fight would be a major plus. No doubt, he would relish the thought of coming down the stretch in a three-way race with John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

Formerly obese, Huckabee has waged a public battle with weight problems over the past several years, during which he has managed to lose a whopping 110 pounds. One of his presidential campaign slogans will likely be " I [heart symbol] Huckabee!"

Song Lyrics I've Misunderstood

I don't know about you, but I'm constantly misunderstanding song lyrics. In many cases, I never figure what's actually being sung until I see the words in writing. Here are some examples of song lyrics I've misunderstood over the years:

(1) From Billy Joel's "My Life":

Actual lyrics: "Got a call from an old friend. We used to be real close."

What I heard: "Got a call from an old friend weast of the riv boat."

(2) From the Black Crowes' "Too Hard to Handle":

Actual lyrics: "Mamma, I'm sure hard to handle now"

What I heard: "Mamma, I'm sure am da henda now"

(3) From the opening theme to Good Times:

Actual lyrics: "Easy credit ripoffs"

What I heard: "Easy crayda ripoffs"

Actual lyrics: "Hangin' in a chow line"

What I heard: "Hangin' and a jivin'"

(4) From the opening theme to All in the Family:

Actual lyrics: "Gee, our old LaSalle ran great"

What I heard: "Gee, our old LaSow rent rate"

(5) From the opening theme to The Flintstones:

Actual lyrics: "They're the modern stone age family"

What I heard: "They're a modern-storic family"

Actual lyrics: "From the town of Bedrock"

What I heard: "Wilma, down in Bedrock"

(6) From the opening and closing themes to Gilligan's Island respectively:

Actual lyrics: "The ship took ground on the shore of this uncharted desert isle"

What I heard: "The ship sacrowned on the shore of this, a charted desert isle"

Actual lyrics: "No phones, no lights, no motor cars"

What I heard: "No phones, no lights, no motorguard"

(7) From Exile's "Kiss You All Over":

Actual lyrics: "Till the night closes in"

What I heard: "Till the night comes within"

(8) From Jackson Browne's "Lawyers in Love":

Actual lyrics: "As vacation land for lawyers in love"

What I heard: "As vacation land for liars in love"

(9) From Gordon Lightfoot's "Carefree Highway":

Actual lyrics: "Carefree Highway, let me slip away on you"

What I heard: "Every highway lets me slip away on you"

(10) From Paul McCartney's "My Brave Face":

Actual lyrics: "My brave, my brave, my brave face"

What I heard: "My great, my great, my great face"

(11) From America's "Ventura Highway":

Actual lyrics: "Ventura highway in the sunshine"

What I heard: "Venture a highway in the sunshine"

(12) From the Eagles' "The Best of My Love":

Actual lyrics: "Wastin' our time on cheap talk and wine"

What I heard: "Wastin' our time on cheap-talkin' wine"

(13) From Elvis Presley's "Don't be Cruel":

Actual lyrics: "Sittin' home all alone"

What I heard: "Sittin' on morning low"

Actual lyrics: "Don't be cruel to a heart that's true"

What I heard: "Don't be cruel -- true heart that's true"

(14) From Earth Wind and Fire's "Dancing in September":

Actual lyrics: "Aaahh Ba de ya -- Say do you remember"

What I heard: "On and on -- Santa, you remember"

(15) From James Taylor's "Fire and Rain":

Actual lyrics: "I've seen fire and I've seen rain"

What I heard: "Obscene fire and obscene rain"

Confront Problems Confidently

When given a problem to resolve, no matter how difficult it might seem, never let it be known that you don't think you can do it, even if that's the case. Give it your best shot anyway. Very often, you will surprise yourself as to what you can actually do.

At other times, the problem will resolve itself, and you will get the credit. Even if you ultimately fail, you will likely get credit for trying. Conversely, no one ever gets any credit for throwing up their hands and giving up. Those who don't try, never fail -- but they never get any glory either.

Random Rants and Raves #88

If I'm not completely awake when I step outside to go to work on an extremely cold morning, I am by the time I get to the car.         

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I hate the feeling of having had to go against the grain of my personality. This is the uncomfortable "soreness in the soul" sensation I get after being forced to show some assertiveness, aggressiveness, courage, or any other quality that doesn't come naturally to me.    

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Most of the stupid decisions I've made during my lifetime have come at times when I've had too much time on my hands.

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Occasionally, you'll meet someone who is so entrenched in his personal ideology that he would be willing argue that black is actually white and day is actually night in order to defend it.

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Why is it that one must be an attorney to address the U.S. Supreme Court? Do the justices not understand regular people?

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During the Christmas season, I heard a young man naming off some expensive gifts he expected to receive. He said his parents were very generous. When I was growing up, my parents were very generous too -- they just had very little to express that generosity with!

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How can B.B. King still have "Lucille"? I thought he gave it to Pope John Paul II in 1998.

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For an NFL team, the next best thing to making the playoffs is to be able to prevent a rival from getting in.

A 401(k) as Unemployment Insurance?

The rules for 401(k) plans need to be changed to allow people to take penalty-free distributions from their 401(k) account(s) during times of unemployment. Those distributions could come from accounts with any previous employer, not just the one from which a worker was most recently terminated. The funds could be used for any purpose and would not be restricted to use for paying the rent, making a house payment, or other hardship situations. Unemployment is enough of a hardship in and of itself and those weekly checks from the state employment commission hardly begin to make up for lost income.

The only thing the unemployed would need to document would be the fact they were involuntarily terminated from their job. The standard termination letter could fulfill that requirement. Voluntary departure from one's job (including the acceptance of a buyout) or termination due to illegal activity such as assaulting a co-worker or downloading child pornography on the office computer would not be justification for penalty-free withdrawals.

Of course, one could argue that this would be subject to abuse. For example, some people would try to continue making penalty-free withdrawals even after they have found a new job (although the IRS could easily catch that kind of thing). However, that's not reason enough to dismiss the concept offhand. If potential abuse were the only deciding factor as to whether a concept should the adopted, then FEMA would never have gotten off drawing board.

Besides, allowing a 401(k) to be used during times of unemployment would encourage greater participation by people who either don't participate in their employers' 401(k) plans or limit their participation for fear that they will need their money during times of crisis. They are also wary of all the red tape involved in taking some of the qualified early, penalty-free distributions under the current rules.

2008 Presidential Contender: Bill Richardson

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson recently threw his hat into the ring for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Richardson served 15 years in the House of Representatives before becoming U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and subsequently Energy Secretary under Bill Clinton. He recently began his second term as New Mexico's governor. He was first elected to this post in 2002 and then reelected last November by the widest margin of any gubernatorial candidate in that state's history, garnering 68 percent of the vote. Due to his previous ties to the Clinton Administration, he might be viewed as an acceptable alternative to Hillary Clinton, should her candidacy fizzle out.

Richardson is a member of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), an association of moderate Democrats, one of which he is well known to be. Being the governor of a state from the Southwest, a Republican-dominated region where Democrats would like to make inroads, could work to his advantage. However, he may have to answer for the fact that New Mexico switched from "blue" to "red" in the 2004 election (Gore carried it in 2000, but Bush took it in 2004).

Governors, in general, tend to do better than senators in their quest for the presidency, especially in recent elections. Four of the last five men to be elected president did so as either sitting governors (Bill Clinton and George W. Bush) or former governors (Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan). However, the last sitting senator to be elected president was John F. Kennedy in 1960. In the Democratic field of 2008, Bill Richardson is likely to be one of only two governors (the other is former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack), running against a host of senators. Therefore, although he is not currently considered to be one of his party's top-tier presidential prospects, he should not be thought of as a long shot either. Indeed, he could be the dark horse among the Democrats.

2008 Presidential Contender: Sam Brownback

On Saturday, January 20, 2007, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback formally announced his candidacy for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Brownback first entered public office as the Kansas’ secretary of agriculture in 1986. He made his first bid for elective office in 1994, when he successfully ran for the U.S. House of Representatives.

However, after serving only one term in the House, he decided to run for the senate seat vacated by Bob Dole in 1996. When Dole resigned from that seat in the spring of that year to run for president, former Lieutenant Governor Sheila Frahm was appointed to fill it until a special election could be held in November. However, Brownback defeated her in a primary and subsequently defeated Democrat Jill Docking in the special election. After completing Dole’s final term in the U.S. Senate, Brownback was elected to a full term of his own in 1998, and then reelected in 2004 with 69% of the vote. As a strong believer in term limits, he promised not to run for reelection in 2010, when his current term is scheduled to end.

Brownback has solid social conservative credentials and is therefore a favorite of organizations and advocacy groups that push a “family values” agenda. He has strong anti-abortion views and opposes both gay marriage and civil unions. Like President Bush, he opposes embryonic stem cell research, but supports the use of adult and umbilical cord stem cells for medical purposes. In addition, he has led the charge in the U.S. Senate against indecency on television and introduced bill to regulate the rating system of the computer and video game industry.

Brownback also portrays himself as a fiscal conservative. He now supports the idea of a kind of flat tax, similar to that which was floated by publisher Steve Forbes during his runs for GOP presidential nomination in 1996 and 2000. He suggests that his version of the flax tax be tested in Washington, DC for a while before going nationwide.

Brownback was an early supporter of President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and has consistently aligned with those who favor the war effort, but he now opposes Bush’s recent call for a troop surge. However, he continues to be critical of Democrats who call for what he labels a “cut and run” strategy in Iraq.

If Mitt Romney cannot sell himself as the alternative for right-wing Republicans who demand a presidential nominee who is more socially conservative than John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, they might well turn to Brownback. However, pragmatic primary voters might shun him, feeling that he may be a bit too extreme to win a general election. Of course, two years before the 1980 election, many Republicans expressed those same sentiments about Ronald Reagan.

Winning and Losing in the Game of Self-Control

One of my many New Year's resolutions for 2007 was to stop, or least limit, my outbursts of anger, panic, frustration, displeasure, and sarcasm. Since I've never been a recreational user of profanity, my resolution also called for me make sure curse words and vulgar words do not slip out of my mouth. In a nutshell, my resolution was to avoid, as much as possible, reacting negatively when things don't go my way. I've always had a built-in expectation that things ought to go my way -- at all times! When they don't, I have a natural, and almost uncontrollable, inclination to lash out in some way.

Interestingly enough, I'm not all that concerned about how these outbursts affect others. And I didn't make this resolution for any kind of religious or sanctimonious reason or out of fear that God will somehow punish me for not putting the brakes on that kind of behavior. It was made mainly for selfish reasons, as I don't like the way I feel in the aftermath of an angry tirade. That kind of behavior causes conflict, and I'm not a person of conflict. It just doesn't fit who I am.

At any rate, to keep up with how I'm doing in regard to this resolution, I have devised a little tracking scheme. Since I'm a big sports fan, I've decided to treat every day of the year as if it were a game that could be won or lost. Days in which I can manage to avoid blowing up and/or cursing will be counted as games won; days in which I slip up will be counted as games lost. In Major League Baseball, teams play 162 games each season. Well, the season for testing my compliance with this resolution will consist of 365 games a year. I'll be interested in seeing if I can have a winning record in my first year at this. As of yesterday, I have record of 19 wins and 4 losses.

Wish me luck! 

2008 Presidential Contender: Hillary Clinton

New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton has officially kicked off her quest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. In typical, calculating Clinton style, she chose to make her announcement via her Web site on January 20 -- exactly two years from the day when the next president will take office.

Ms. Clinton was first elected to the Senate in 2000 and was subsequently reelected last November, each time by an overwhelming margin. She has never been seriously challenged in a primary or general election. She is currently the front runner and would seem to have the inside track to the nomination. However, she will probably have to moderate a bit over the next year in order to prove that she could win a general election. If she can't do this, the Democrats may seek a candidate with broader appeal.

Could Ms. Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign crash and burn in 2007? Similar things have happened before. Off the top of my head, I can think of at least two presidential campaigns that officially began and ended in the year before the election -- Gary Hart in 1987 (although he futilely attempted to restart his campaign later that year) and Dan Quayle in 1999.

I see a distinct possibility that Ms. Clinton’s campaign could indeed implode before the end of this year. Now that she's announced her candidacy, Democrats will begin to take a serious look at her. Even before her announcement, she was starting to lose some ground in the polls. And that’s not supposed to happen to any candidate until after he or she announces. Yes, she’ll probably collect the most money of any of the potential Democratic contenders during the first three-quarters of this year, but that alone will not save her. Ask Howard Dean. If she sees the handwriting on the wall in October or November, I believe she will pull the plug quickly. She’s too proud to risk the humiliation of being drubbed in the primaries.

The problem with Hillary Clinton is that more and more Democrats are starting to question her ability to win in the general election, even against the nominee of an unpopular Republican Party. I keep hearing the word “polarizing” coming from the mouths of many Democrats when they are asked about their opinion of her. That characteristic might be inconsequential in a state or district in which one party dominates, but it usually proves disastrous in a general election for President of the United States. Her candidacy could bring out the evangelicals in droves for the Republicans even more so than Kerry's did in 2004. But, more importantly, she could turn off independent voters and drive them to the GOP candidate. Democrats have no desire to extend their presidential losing streak to three and therefore match the Carter-Mondale-Dukakis debacle of the 1980’s.

Barack Obama would seem to be the main threat to her right now. However, even if his popularity soon fades, Ms. Clinton will still face some major challengers. As the stature of "red state" Democrats like John Edwards and Bill Richardson starts to rise, hers will likely diminish even further. Keep in mind that the last three Democrats to capture the White House came from what are now red states. The last time I checked, New York didn’t qualify. Right now, though, the nomination appears to be hers to lose.

2008 Presidential Campaign Update #3

It's still early in 2007 and we already have ten official entries, two Republicans and eight Democrats, in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes. The Republicans are Representative Duncan Hunter of California, who is the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback. The Democrats are former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, former North Carolina Senator and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee John Edwards, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.

In addition, nine candidates, five Republicans and four Democrats, who had been expected by many to join the race, have decided to take their names out of consideration. The Republicans are former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating, former Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, the former Senate majority leader who did not seek re-election to the Senate in November, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Virginia Senator George Allen, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Allen and Santorum were both defeated in their re-election bids for the Senate in November, directly leading to their decisions to not seek the presidency. The Democrats are Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.

Today, I also offer my updated presidential power ratings for both parties, in which I rank the current and prospective candidates in order of their likelihood to receive their respective party's presidential nomination. Of course, these rankings will fluctuate with time, as the fortunes of the candidates change, some drop out, and new ones emerge. Here's my latest installment:

Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Chris Dodd

5. Joe Biden

6. Bill Richardson

7. Al Gore

8. Tom Vilsack

9. John Kerry

10. Wesley Clark

11. Dennis Kucinich

12. Mike Gravel

Republicans:

1. John McCain

2. Mitt Romney

3. Rudy Giuliani

4. Sam Brownback

5. Newt Gingrich

6. Chuck Hagel

7. Mike Huckabee

8. Tommy Thompson

9. Jim Gilmore

10. Tom Tancredo

11. Duncan Hunter

12. George Pataki

13. Ron Paul

14. Michael Bloomberg

Stay tuned for regular updates, with the next one coming around February 12.